When past stops predicting future: why insurance risk modeling needs a new data and AI foundation

Europe’s record-breaking summer heat reminded me the world is changing fast. A West Coast friend mentioned they now had four seasons: ‘Winter, Spring, Summer and Fire.’ For over a century, actuarial science has run on a simple assumption: yesterday's losses are the best guide to tomorrow's premiums. Trend tables, loss triangles, and smoothed historical curves have served insurers well in a world where floods, fires, and mortality rates changed slowly and predictably. Today’s world is less…